SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION REGION COMPLEX SECURITY

Abstract

Introduction. Ensuring comprehensive regional security has become one of the priority tasks of public administration amid growing economic damage from emergencies and increasing threats to the socio-economic systems of territories. Existing indicator-based models of regional security assessment are, as a rule, not linked to program-target planning mechanisms and do not account for resource constraints as an endogenous model factor. This necessitates the development of an integrated methodological approach combining territorial security assessment with the task of allocating resources between development and security programs.

Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study comprises the program-target approach, expert assessment, and economic-mathematical modelling. These approaches are integrated into a three-module system of security target functions: Module 1 structures the hierarchy of goals, directions, tasks and alternative measures; Module 2 provides expert calibration of the weight and resource structure using the concordance coefficient; Module 3 delivers an integrated scenario assessment based on a standardised security index.

Results and conclusions. Three interrelated assessment modules have been developed and systematized: construction of logical procedures for achieving program goals, calibration of the weight and resource structure, and integrated scenario assessment. Demonstration approbation on a typical industrial region using a calculation scheme covering 9 security aspects, 27 directions, 82 tasks and 180 alternative measures has confirmed the operability of the model. Sensitivity analysis shows that the integral index is most responsive to the degree of task feasibility (elasticity ≈ 1.0), and that under the current parameter configuration the highest value of the conditional integral scenario-comparison index has been achieved by the best security scenario.

Discussion. The proposed approach extends indicator-based regional security models by incorporating risk-oriented and resource allocation dimensions, and by explicitly identifying the task feasibility coefficient as an independent model parameter. The current demonstration calibration results should be interpreted as a model behavior on a typical region; moving to verifiable applied conclusions requires confirmed regional input data, expert validation of parameters and repeated calculation.